A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
